Maggie Astor Republicans and MAGA have left a lot of political real estate for us to go claim if we are aggressive about it. Nov. 8, 2022, Gov. 2020 comparison maps exclude places where third-party candidates won more than 5 percent of the vote. Senator Raphael Warnock of Georgia, a Democrat, won a runoff election to defeat Herschel Walker, a Trump-backed Republican and former football star. (Disclosure: hes a friend.) The 2022 Missouri State Senate election took place on November 8, 2022, as part of the biennial 2022 United States elections. California, Michigan, Kentucky and Montana also have abortion referendums on the ballot. An edited and condensed version of our conversation follows. Kathy Hochul claimed victory late Tuesday against Representative Lee Zeldin, a conservative Republican. GOP Sen. Ron Johnson is running for a third term making him the only Republican seeking reelection in a state President Biden won in 2020. Its essential to loosening the dark grip of MAGA over the Republican Party. Elissa Slotkin, Democrat, wins re-election to the U.S. House to represent Michigans Seventh Congressional District. From an electoral point of view, the story here is consistent: Democrats have stoked the culture wars by getting more extreme on social issues and Republicans have used this to successfully cleave away a segment of both the non-college white vote and, more recently, the non-college nonwhite vote, Moving to the left may help galvanize the progressive base which is good! Nov. 8, 2022, Republicans must win just 19 competitive seats to retake majority control from the Democrats. In contrast, predictions for races with predicted margins of 10 points or more were correct over 95% of the time. Maggie Astor Third, he would somehow have to obscure the rightward lurch he just went through in the current legislative session the six-week abortion ban, the permitless carry, the assaults on public education and diversity. Albert Sun RCP House Map Race Changes. Republican John Duarte has inched in front of moderate Democrat Adam Gray, despite the fact this Central Valley district went for President Joe Biden by 11 points in 2020. Vermont- this state has consistently voted for Democrat senators and the incumbent Patrick Leahy has been serving since 1974. That being said, with a 56 member Democratic senate, four Republicans Ben Sasse, Mitt Romney, Lisa Murkowski and Susan Collins are likely to not abuse the filibuster, letting multiple legislation pass through with certain compromise. Jennifer Rubin: Tammy Baldwin has picked the lock on split-ticket voters. Web2022. The outcomes of the 6-8 contests that will most likely determine control of the U.S. Senate in the next Congress will depend to a large extent on the individual candidates and their campaigns. Im Fivey Fox! Your guide to the midterm results, from Times reporters, Democrats held onto or gained trifectas in a number of states and fended off Republican supermajorities in others. Weve made future-oriented investments in infrastructure and tackling climate change. These are our estimates for which party will win control of the Senate, and the estimated number of seats won by each party. Theres an enormous amount to work with here. In two states, shifts in state power could lead to new restrictions. Alicia Parlapiano RCP Gov Map Race Changes. George Santos, Republican, wins U.S. House seat to represent New Yorks Third Congressional District. but if its not done with empathy and tact it risks outrunning the vast middle part of the country, which progressive activists seem completely uninterested in talking to. *The vice president, Kamala Harris, breaks 50-50 ties for the Democrats. Looking for Bidens Approval Rating Map? Current Senate Albert Sun I've collected a few races I think you should keep your eyeon. Alicia Parlapiano RCP Senate Map Race Changes. Democratic Sen. Catherine Cortez Masto faces a tough race against Republican Adam Laxalt. . Nov. 8, 2022, Because of the order in which different types of ballots are counted, early returns can be misleading. The GOP is still favored to hold open seats in North Carolina and Ohio, rated Lean Republican.. Nov. 8, 2022, Pennsylvania is home to a close Senate race between Lt. Gov. Nov. 10, 2022, More than 200,000 Georgia voters cast ballots for Brian Kemp, Republican candidate for governor, but did not vote for Herschel Walker in the Senate race. Maggie Astor Much is riding on the 2022 midterm elections: the fate of President Joe Bidens agenda, leadership in state capitals across the country and a potential 2024 comeback by former President Donald Trump. Marco Rubio, Republican of Florida, wins re-election to the U.S. Senate. In 2020, Virginias early vote for president favored Republicans, while Pennsylvanias skewed toward Democrats. The data in Table 1 indicate that a couple of the key factors influencing the outcomes of Senate contests during these years were incumbency and state presidential partisanship. An example of data being processed may be a unique identifier stored in a cookie. Is the challenger struggling to raise money? Heres the state of the closest races: *Alaskas Senate race uses ranked-choice voting. Which gives us far more running room to go contest it. We use early returns and polling data to estimate in real time the outcome of the elections for Senate and House control. RCP Average 0 Days to Election Day. Nov. 8, 2022, The shift to the right has been dramatic among counties in Florida reporting nearly all their votes. Click here! Toggle Predictions subsection 1.1 Statewide. Abortion rights fired up Democratic voters, and MAGAs hostility toward democracy and embrace of Donald Trump drove swing voters away from the GOP, puncturing the red-wave fantasy. Along with explaining 84% of the variance in Senate election margins, the 3 variable model correctly predicted the winner of 154 of 170 contested races between 2012 and 2020. Senate elections in California (2016 and 2018), Alabama (2014), and Arkansas (2020) were excluded because there were not 2 major-party candidates in the general election. But this work can get done during the campaign. . Alicia Parlapiano Odds displayed in the graphics may not match numeric odds due to rounding. , The Hillbilly Elegy author and Republican J.D. Note: Includes special elections held during year of election or during previous year. | Privacy Policy, The Outlook for the 2022 Senate Elections: A State-by-State Analysis. We're constantly speaking with campaigns to form our ratings. This is who we think will win. Senator Michael Bennet of Colorado, a Democrat, was elected to a third term, holding off a strong challenge from a Republican newcomer. All rights reserved. Most polls have closed in Alaska, but Alaska doesnt release results until after its last polls close at 1 a.m. Eastern. Despite endless hopeful invocations of but polls show that people like our positions, the truth is that the Democratic Party has been pulled far enough left that even lots of non-crazy people find us just plain scary something that Fox News takes vigorous advantage of. ADHD is an illness, not a lifestyle. and Pa., competitive state races with consequences for abortion remain too close to call. Michiganders are voting on abortion rights. Continue with Recommended Cookies. We work hard to make predictions that are both accurate and defensible. Now, with President Biden announcing his reelection bid, Rosenberg is similarly arguing that despite Bidens age and anemic approval ratings, he is in a strong position to win in 2024 and possibly win big. RacetotheWH launched in 2020 and on average,it was closer to the final resultthan the traditional gold standard, Nate Silvers FiveThirtyEight. Toggle Predictions subsection 1.1 Statewide. Christine Zhang Nov. 9, 2022, Cortez Masto is behind in Nevada at the moment, but there are a lot of votes left in Clark and Washoe, counties home to the state's largest cities. We also have a Live Forecast for the House. But because four of those seats are currently held by Democrats and two by Republicans, its fair to describe the GOP as a slim favorite. Web2022 United States Senate elections 2020 November 8, 2022 December 6 ( Georgia runoff) 2024 35 of the 100 seats in the United States Senate 51 [a] seats needed for a majority Results of the elections: Democratic gain Democratic hold Republican hold No election Rectangular inset ( Oklahoma ): both seats up for election The facts are that the country is better off. WebTexas Senate: With Democrats on Defense, Lone Star State Is a Reach Jessica Taylor March 29, 2023 Members Only Senate Overview The Looming Senate GOP Primary Wars Jessica Taylor March 7, 2023 Members Only Michigan Senate Michigan Senate: With Slotkin Announcement, Democrats Look to Avoid Primary Jessica Taylor February 28, We got to 55 percent in Michigan. Because Alaska uses ranked choice voting, we may not know the winner until Nov. 23. Based on the fundamentals of state partisanship, incumbency, and the national political environment, Republicans have a good chance to pick up at least a seat and take back control of the upper chamber. And Kansas Democratic governor, Laura Kelly, is in a tight re-election race, as is Gov. We got to 57 percent in Pennsylvania. In the current era, Democrats generally have to win contests in Republican-leaning states in order to win a majority of seats in the Senate. Finally, there is a clear midterm effect on Senate elections, with candidates from the party occupying the White House experiencing an average penalty of 5.4 points of margin. Edited by Kyle Kondik, J. Were getting results for ballot measures related to abortion and reproductive rights in Kentucky, Michigan and Vermont. These are only estimates, and they may not be informed by reports from election officials. Explore the full list of features on our site map. Voters in these counties overall continued to support the Democratic candidate for governor, Beto ORourke. Based on the results of my analysis of Senate contests between 2012 and 2020 in Table 2, I calculated the models expected results of all 35 Senate contests taking place this year. Democrat Katie Hobbs vs. Republican Kari Lake is one of the marquee races of the 2022 midterms. With Republicans enjoying a consistent lead of 2-3 points on the generic ballot according to the FiveThirtyEight polling average, the results indicated that the GOP was very likely to gain enough seats in November to take control of the House of Representatives. Montana voters rejected a proposal that would have required medical interventions to save those that the state defines as born alive infants. The party that wins two of the Races to watch include those in the 17th, 18th, 19th and 22nd Congressional Districts, as well as the contest for governor. Voters in Vermont decided in favor of including abortion protections in their state constitution. There is also an unexpectedly competitive Senate race in Utah between Senator Mike Lee, a Republican, and Evan McMullin, an independent. Beto ORourke performed better than expected in these majority-Hispanic counties. Meanwhile, Republicans are in the hunt in Colorado and Washington State though both are rated Lean Democratic. It would take a larger GOP wave than is currently apparent for Democratic Sens. While Democrats won 94% of contests in states won by the Democratic presidential candidate, Republicans won only 86% of contests in states won by the Republican presidential candidate. One of the most highly watched and dissected and forecastedbattles during the 2022 midterm elections is the Senate race. We and our partners share information on your use of this website to help improve your experience. With neither party holding a clear advantage, control of the Senate will likely come down to a half dozen or so competitive contests in which the strengths and weaknesses of individual candidates could be crucial. John Fetterman has been locked in a bitter contest against Mehmet Oz, the Republican celebrity doctor. Results I cant tell you how fired up the Democratic grass roots is right now. Ron DeSantis winning the early vote in Miami-Dade County which voted for Hillary Clinton by +29 points just six years ago is yet another sign of growing Republican strength among Hispanic voters. Democratic Rep. Cindy Axne survived 2020, despite Donald Trump carrying her Des Moines-based district. This has to be the driving goal of the party this cycle. Nov. 9, 2022, Democratic House candidates outperformed Biden in several Michigan districts, bucking a rightward trend and maintaining seven of their seats. Republican Mehmet Oz is seeking to close a deficit with Democrat John Fetterman in the open-seat race. Lazaro Gamio Dont punish people for it. Steve outlines the four factors that have made control of the Senate a coin flip. Representative Sean Patrick Maloney has conceded defeat to Mike Lawler, a first-term Republican state assemblyman. The Timess election results pages are produced by Michael Andre, Aliza Aufrichtig, Kristen Bayrakdarian, Neil Berg, Matthew Bloch, Vronique Brossier, Irineo Cabreros, Sean Catangui, Andrew Chavez, Nate Cohn, Lindsey Rogers Cook, Alastair Coote, Annie Daniel, Saurabh Datar, Avery Dews, Asmaa Elkeurti, Tiffany Fehr, Andrew Fischer, Lazaro Gamio, Martn Gonzlez Gmez, Will Houp, Jon Huang, Samuel Jacoby, Jason Kao, Josh Katz, Aaron Krolik, Jasmine C. Lee, Vivian Li, Rebecca Lieberman, Ilana Marcus, Alicia Parlapiano, Jaymin Patel, Marcus Payadue, Matt Ruby, Rachel Shorey, Charlie Smart, Umi Syam, Jaime Tanner, James Thomas, Urvashi Uberoy, Ege Uz, Isaac White and Christine Zhang. Most of the vote reporting so far is early, and Democrats are expected to win those votes by a large margin. Given the uncertainty of the overall results of the 2022 Senate elections, I decided to conduct a seat-by-seat analysis of all 174 Senate races since 2012 to see what factors have influenced the results of these contests.

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